In this article
FORECAST.ETS.STAT returns a statistic about the ETS model behind FORECAST.ETS, such as the smoothing parameters (alpha, beta, gamma) or error measures (MAPE, RMSE), to judge how good the forecast is.
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Syntax
=FORECAST.ETS.STAT(values, timeline, statistic_type, [seasonality], [data_completion], [aggregation])| Argument | What it means |
|---|---|
values, timeline |
History |
statistic_type |
1 alpha, 2 beta, 3 gamma, 4 MASE, 5 SMAPE, 6 MAE, 7 RMSE, 8 step size |
Examples
Example 1
=ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.STAT($I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,A2),4)Result: 0.8333. See the worked example table below for more cases.
FORECAST.ETS.STAT in practice
Where you will use it
- Checking forecast accuracy (MAPE, RMSE)
- Comparing seasonality settings
- Explaining a forecast to management
Worked example
| Statistic | Formula | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | =ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.STAT($I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,A2),4) | 0.8333 |
| 5 | =ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.STAT($I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,A3),4) | 0.0901 |
| 7 | =ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.STAT($I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,A4),4) | 23.3396 |
Results calculated in Excel. 1 = alpha (smoothing), 5 = SMAPE (error), 7 = RMSE (error, same units as sales).
Mistakes people make
| Mistake | What to do instead |
|---|---|
| Swapping values and timeline | Values first, then the timeline |
| Too little history | Needs several seasons |
Related functions
📚 Part of the free Excel course: Beginner → Expert · Try it in the Formula Lab or ask the AI Helper.
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