FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT Function in Excel: How Uncertain Is the Forecast?

FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT Function in Excel: How Uncertain Is the Forecast? featured illustration

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⏱ 2 min readUpdated 5 October 2026

StatisticsLevel: ExpertAvailable in: Excel 2016+

In this article
  1. Syntax
  2. Examples
  3. Example 1
  4. FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT in practice
  5. Where you will use it
  6. Worked example
  7. Mistakes people make
  8. Related functions
  9. Continue learning

FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT returns the ± interval around a FORECAST.ETS value. A forecast of 1,200 ± 400 tells a very different story from 1,200 ± 40.

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Syntax

=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(target_date, values, timeline, [confidence_level], [seasonality], ...)
Argument What it means
confidence_level Default 0.95.

Examples

Example 1

=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A38, B2:B37, A2:A37, 0.95, 12)

The ± band to show next to next month’s forecast.

FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT in practice

Where you will use it

  • ± range around an ETS forecast
  • Safety stock planning
  • Communicate forecast uncertainty

Worked example

Month no.FormulaResult
25=ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A2,$I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,0.95),1)39.8
26=ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A3,$I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,0.95),1)51.8
27=ROUND(FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A4,$I$1:$I$24,$H$1:$H$24,0.95),1)61.6

Results calculated in Excel.

Mistakes people make

MistakeWhat to do instead
Reading itForecast ± this value is the 95% range
Further outThe range widens with distance

FORECAST.ETS · FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY

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    Practice workbook: Statistics advanced33 tasks on realistic sales data — type your formula, the Check column turns green when it is right. Answers sheet included.
    ⬇ XLSX · 36 KB

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